Former
captives of Boko Haram rest at a camp in Yola, Nigeria, after being
rescued by Nigerian troops. (Sunday Alamba / Associated Press)The Nigerian military's push to invade the Sambisa Forest, the last
stronghold of the Islamist militant group Boko Haram, capture its leader
and wipe the group out is delicate, highly dangerous and unlikely to be
completely successful, analysts said.
Government forces have
taken over numerous Boko Haram bases in the forest in Nigeria's
northeast, rescued hundreds of women and children and released aerial
images of terrorists retreating, but it has yet to capture the top
leaders of the group or many of its fighters.
Until
the military clears the vast forest of militants, Boko Haram's deadly
raids on roads, villages and towns will continue, with more lives lost
and no end to the paralysis of transportation and trade in the region.
The group, fighting to establish an Islamist state in Nigeria, has
killed and abducted thousands of people, although estimates of
casualties vary widely.
Nigeria's military, criticized for much of
last year for running away in the face of Boko Haram attacks, has
recently retaken dozens of villages and towns seized by the group,
including Gwoza, the headquarters of its self-declared caliphate. The
militants have been driven back into camps in the forest, near the
border with Cameroon. Analysts say there may still be several thousand
militant fighters, but caution that accurate estimates are unavailable.
Nigerian
troops pushed along a dirt road into the forest last month but were
forced to retreat. A soldier and three members of an accompanying local
civilian defense unit, probably acting as scouts, were killed when their
vehicle hit a mine, according to Nigerian news media and unnamed
military officials. The densely forested area off the road was also
heavily mined.
Military
spokesman Chris Olukolade said in a statement last week that the army
continued to encounter land mines and booby traps. Some Boko Haram
fighters have been killed, he said, although he did not give a number.
The
forest is about 60 miles from the village of Chibok, where 276
schoolgirls were kidnapped last year. Rumors abound that some of the
girls, who are believed to have been split up and married off to
fighters or forced into slavery, may be prisoners in Boko Haram forest
camps, but there's no evidence, analysts said. None of the Chibok girls
have been among those freed so far.
Nigerian President-elect
Muhammadu Buhari, due to take office at the end of the month, damped
hopes recently when he said the girls may never be found, though he
vowed his government would do all it could.
"As much as I wish to, I cannot promise that we can find them," he said.
Nigeria's
national security advisor, Sambo Dasuki, said last week that Boko Haram
would be cleared from the forest before Buhari takes office. But the
government has a record of declaring military deadlines that are not
met; for example, officials vowed to crush Boko Haram and capture its
leader before the March 28 presidential election.
An expert on
Boko Haram, Yan St-Pierre of the Berlin-based security analysis group
MOSECON, said Nigeria's military had announced its planned attack on the
forest 10 days in advance. That gave Boko Haram had the chance to
spirit away its leader, Abubakar Shekau, other key figures and hostages,
he said.
"We know they have tunnels in the Sambisa Forest,"
St-Pierre said. "It's a big place. Boko Haram has been there for a
while. They've had time to set up camps, build tunnels, booby trap the
area, set up fortifications and make it very difficult for anybody
wanting to attack them.
"Boko Haram has set itself up properly," he said. "It's a big problem."
"They
have returned to classic guerrilla tactics; they have spread their
forces out. If you are going not going to bomb the whole area, you need
very precise, surgical attacks," St.-Pierre said.
Nnamdi Obasi, an
analyst on Nigeria with the International Crisis Group, said driving
Boko Haram fighters out of the forest would be much more complex and
difficult than retaking towns and villages.
"It's a vast area.
It's rugged terrain. It's dense foliage," he said. "This looks like the
last major camp of the insurgents. If the military is able to overrun
it, it will be a significant achievement.
"It's going to take a longer time, more effort and perhaps more cost in terms of lives, but it's doable."
In
recent weeks, Boko Haram abandoned Gwoza and other towns and villages,
rather than staying to fight, in some cases returning later to mount
attacks on the soldiers who had moved in. But while weakened, Boko Haram
is far from defeated, according to analysts.
Its
loss of territory signals an end to the group's effort to try to run a
state and control a vast reach of Nigerian territory, but its members
are likely to melt into the landscape, mounting guerrilla attacks and
suicide bombings, as other terrorist groups have done after losing
ground, analysts said.
"They have proven to be a very resilient
and adaptable creature in the past," said Virginia Comolli of the
London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. "They've
always been able to adapt their tactics in order to catch the military
off-guard.
"I think it will be possible to push the group
underground, but I think we are still going to see attacks, maybe over a
smaller area," she said. "They might try to carry out a big attack to
tell the world they're still strong and relevant."
Nigerian
generals and politicians aim to capture or kill Shekau, the group's
leader, but Obasi said even if Nigeria's military overran Boko Haram's
base in the forest and managed to eliminate Shekau, it wouldn't spell an
end to Boko Haram, which recently allied with the extremist group
Islamic State.
"They will dissolve into cells and operate from
various communities in the northeast, and they will retain the capacity
to strike with lone wolf attacks and suicide bombings," Obasi said.
St-Pierre
said support and funding from Islamic State could help Boko Haram set
up cells in neighboring countries, after other small militant cells in
the region have tilted toward Islamic State. He said there were several
Islamic State-linked figures in the region, providing logistical and
financial support to Boko Haram and other cells.
"The north-south
axis to Libya is basically an open highway right now. It's one of the
main supply routes. It allows [Islamic State] to supply Boko Haram,"
St-Pierre said.
Comolli said Boko Haram's alliance with Islamic
State, at a time when the Nigerian militants have lost towns and
territory, "was a way to say, 'We are still relevant, we want to be
allied with the most dangerous 'successful' extremist group in the
world. We are part of that club.'"
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